“Godzilla” El Niño Suggests Winter Will be Mild Overall

2016: El Niño is the name given to what happens to the Pacific Ocean every two to seven years. The Pacific ocean changes weather across the globe, and in New England, we now have a better-than-average chance of a very mild winter.

El Niño Basics

Normally the East-West trade winds blowing from South America toward Asia and Australia push the warm water to the west and keep the eastern Pacific cool. For reasons that are not well understood, these trade winds will sporadically die down and the eastern Pacific will get warmer.  Typically the temperature increase is 0.5° C. This year we’ve exceeded 2° C!

NASA/JPL graph showing average sea surface height, which is correlated with sea temperature.

The phenomenon starts in September and peaks by January. The warm waters of El Niño were first recorded by Peruvian fishermen at Christmastime. They named it “the baby”, a reference to the Christ child.

So far the unusual weather has included: a prolonged drought in Africa, a delayed rainy season in Indonesia, two rare hurricanes in the Middle East, the heaviest rain in 80 years in the dryest desert on Earth (the Atacama in Chile), and a shorts-and-T-shirt December in New England.

Since we started tracking weather in 1880, we have measured average global temperatures. 2015 and 2016 will likely be the hottest on record because of El Niño. This year’s El Niño is so big that some have taken to calling it the “Godzilla” El Niño.

Landlords Might Relax, Snow Removers Might Start Plan B

Landlords should always have a snow removal plan. Usually these costs are variable, depending on how many visits are required to keep a property clear, or how many feet of snow are removed. It may turn out that winter 2015-2016 will be less expensive than the average year.

Snow removal companies should always have a Plan B. If your primary winter business is snow removal, consider these questions: Could you pay the bills if there were no snow at all? Are there landscaping projects like walls or patios that you could be working on in the cold? Can you ask your best customers for other work? You want to reduce your chances of needing a working capital loan or other financial aid come spring.

A mild winter could be a good chance for landlords to get some of their exterior hardscaping projects done. Don’t attempt to paint, but do consider working with your snow removal person/landscaper to see if you can come up with something.

Throw Away the Farmer’s Almanac

Many of us still read the Farmer’s Almanac. But did you know how they make predictions? They use a “secret formula” that was developed in 1792 based on sunspots. How often do you hear reputable meteorologists talking about sunspots? Never. This is why they claim to have updated the formula with “science.”
What did the Farmer’s Almanac predict for winter 2015-2016? Bitter cold, and heavy snow:

Oops! They may yet turn out to be right, but so far it looks as if they should have focused more on the actual science and less on sunspots. Weather is notoriously hard to predict, and El Niño is no exception.

El Niño is Fickle

Historically El Niño delivers milder than average winters to New England. But it’s unpredictable. In places like California, which are desparately hoping for greater rainfall, there have been many El Niño years with greater than average rainfall, but one noticeable year with even worse drought. Our advice remains, “Hope for the best, plan for the worst.”

In the meantime, let’s hope for more warm sunny days so we can work on our winter tans.

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